CARMELO, was a method developed by FiveThirtyEight, tried to forecast players’ performance. CARMELO compared a player to similar players of the past, and generates future projection in terms of wins above replacement (WARP). A new plus-minus metric called RAPTOR has been replaced with CARMELO which is not being used anymore.
CARMELO stands for “Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization” can answer how good can any player be in the near future. Digging historical similarities, an index number between 0 and 100 indicates how comparable one player is to another. In a CARMELO calculation, a combination of Real Plus-Minus and Box Plus-Minus where the advanced plus-minus metrics give us a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player.