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This article dives deep into the early MVP, Defensive Player, Most Improved, Rookie of the Year, and breakout narratives heading into the 2025–26 NBA season. From elite veterans like Nikola Jokić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to rising stars like Jalen Williams and Cooper Flagg, the stage is set for both established stars and newcomers to stake their claims. Supportive NBA projections often boost individual award chances, since efficient rotations can maximize a star’s productivity while highlighting breakout talents around them.
MVP Favorites
The race for Most Valuable Player always draws the most attention. With the 2024–25 season concluding with a hard-fought duel between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić, both figures return as prime candidates, while Luka Dončić and others lurk just behind. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters the 2025–26 campaign as the reigning MVP, having led the league in scoring at 32.7 points per game while adding 6.4 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. He received 71 first-place votes and 913 total points in the global media panel used for MVP balloting, outpacing Nikola Jokić’s 787 total points and 29 first-place votes. SGA’s number of consecutive 20+ point games reached 72, a record. Analysts have emphasized that he led the youngest roster in league history to 68 wins (18 more than Jokić’s squad) and made significant two-way contributions.
Nikola Jokić, a three-time MVP entering this season, remains a strong contender in the discussion for the award. In the 2024-25 season, he once again delivered outstanding performance, coming close to averaging a 29-point triple-double. His remarkable consistency is evident, as he has finished among the top two in MVP voting for five consecutive seasons—a feat matched only by Larry Bird. Some predictive models even favor Jokić over his competitors as the 2025-26 season approaches. Luka Dončić, now with the Los Angeles Lakers, is drawing increased attention from league executives and media surveys as a dark-horse MVP candidate. Betting markets place him behind SGA and Jokić, but within striking distance. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama also appear in many early top 5 MVP odds lists.
Rookie of the Year & Breakout Rookies
Among newcomers, one name dominates the early chatter — Cooper Flagg — though others have breakout upside if given opportunity. Cooper Flagg, the No. 1 pick by the Dallas Mavericks, enters 2025–26 widely viewed as the massive favorite to win Rookie of the Year. At one sportsbook, he is installed at –250 odds to claim the honor. The expectations rest on his NBA-ready two-way capability straight out of Duke. While Flagg looms largest, Tre Johnson (No. 6 pick, Wizards) and Ace Bailey (No. 5, Jazz) sit behind him in the odds stack. Dylan Harper (No. 2, Spurs) holds 10/1 odds, V.J. Edgecombe (No. 3) sits at 25/1, and Kon Knueppel (No. 4) sits at 35/1. An underdog like Walter Clayton Jr. (No. 21) is pegged at 100/1, an extremely long shot.
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)
Defensive awards often reward disruptive rim protection, lockdown versatility, and consistent team defense. Evan Mobley is a major contender in this space after a breakout campaign. Evan Mobley captured the 2024–25 Defensive Player of the Year award, the first in the Cavaliers franchise history. In the process, his contract was upgraded: an extra $45 million was added, as his share of the salary cap moved from 25% to 30%. He also notched a career-high 41 points, 10 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 6 three-pointers in a December 7 game. Other candidates include rim protectors like Victor Wembanyama and interior anchors such as Rudy Gobert. The context matters: team success on defense amplifies individual value.
Most Improved Player & Breakout Campaigns
Improvement awards often reward leap seasons from younger core players locked into bigger roles. Some existing rotation players appear primed to elevate. Jalen Williams has already shown steady growth. In the 2024–25 season he earned his first All-Star selection, All-NBA Third Team, and joined Oklahoma City’s championship run. On July 13, 2025, he signed a five-year extension worth up to $287 million with OKC. Given his role in a stacked core alongside SGA, his continued leap could make him a candidate for Most Improved or All-Star elevation. Other rising names might include second-year wings or forwards stepping into bigger roles. Each contender must justify their breakout category with measurable statistical improvements, defensive growth, and team impact.
Clutch Player & Other Specialty Awards
Awards that reward specific contexts—late-game performance, sixth man, etc.—often depend on usage and reputation. In 2024–25, Jalen Brunson won the NBA’s Clutch Player of the Year after scoring 52 field goals in clutch situations (final five minutes, score differential ≤ 5). He averaged 5.6 points on 51.5% shooting in those moments, with 64.7% in the final 30 seconds of close games. He earned 70 first-place votes in the writer/broadcaster panel that decided the award. That pattern could bolster his appeal in 2025–26 again. Backcourt depth players, energy forwards, or those who spark momentum swings could emerge as surprise contenders in sixth man or hustle awards, especially on deep teams that hide them behind stars.
Award Race Dynamics & Rotational Context
Beyond sheer stats and name recognition, award outcomes often shift based on team context, matchups, and projection models. A star’s vote appeal grows when surrounded by complementary pieces that allow him to dominate without burden. Teams that design efficient rotations and clear defensive identity offer stars more freedom to shine. Individual award chances are often boosted by supportive NBA projections, since efficient rotations can maximize a star’s productivity while highlighting breakout talents around them. Narrative arcs—such as redemption stories, underdog rises, or veteran dominance—often drive biased ballots. When multiple superstars coexist (e.g., Jokić and Jalen Williams on the same squad), votes may split, giving a slight edge to solo-leading figures like SGA in that scenario.
Superstars to Watch Beyond Awards
Some names might not win a seasonal hardware—but are still must-watch performers whose campaigns shape narratives across the league. Giannis remains a perennial force and can tilt both MVP and DPOY conversations if his team trajectory improves. Meanwhile, Wembanyama’s generational length and impact put him on early watch lists in multiple categories. Markets often highlight Anthony Edwards as the top American-born MVP hopeful, trailing the international names in 2025–26 MVP odds. His athletic upside and growing leadership could elevate him to late-game ballots.
Projection-Based Rankings & Betting Odds
Odds markets and expert forecasts help us frame plausible hierarchies before tipoff. As of early September 2025, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is slight MVP favorite with +275 odds, while Jokić trails at +320. Luka Dončić sits third at +500, followed by Giannis (+1200) and Wembanyama (+1800). DraftKings earlier listed Jokić at +200 and SGA at +250. BetMGM had SGA at –2000 with Jokić behind at +800. Other top picks include Anthony Edwards (+1000) and Cade Cunningham (+3000). ESPN’s Summer Forecast focused on whether Jokić can regain the crown and which rookie standout would emerge. Some experts already predict Jokić will overtake SGA, citing his consistency and upside. Others argue that narrative and team improvement may give SGA more weight.
Risks & Wildcards
No campaign is immune to setbacks. Injuries, roster shifts, or team declines can derail even the most promising award trajectories. Any injury or rest policy can erode ballots, especially for candidates missing 20 or more games. The margin is often razor-thin in MVP and defensive races. Roster changes around stars—trading or losing key shooters, defensive anchors, or role players—can amplify or suppress a star’s output. A star might shine individually but lose in ballot perception if team fortunes dip.
Final Outlook
As we head into 2025–26, the storylines are rich and multidimensional. On one end, SGA looks to defend his throne; on the other, Luka, Jokić, Giannis, and Wembanyama bring legitimacy to the challenges they face. In the rookie ranks, Cooper Flagg stands perched atop the odds board, while Jalen Williams provides a blueprint for sustained breakout success. Defensive intrigue centers on Evan Mobley’s reign, while specialized awards give room for Brunson and others to stake claims. Individual award chances are often boosted by supportive NBA projections, since efficient rotations can maximize a star’s productivity while highlighting breakout talents around them. The coming season promises not just competition but unfolding arcs that may define careers—and shape the legacy of 2025–26.