The teams that take place in today’s slate and their past performance under the same rest day situation are shown in green.
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Stats last updated April 13, 2019
10:42 am.
Adjusted Efficiency Differential (AED) Explained
Raw efficiencies (offensive minus defensive) are adjusted to account for
opponent strength and
game location (road/home) in an effort to single out the
rest days impact more precisely. We call it AED.
Adjusted Efficiency Differential (AED) = {Expected Efficiency Differential}- {Actual Efficiency Differential}
Since AED measures expectancy versus reality, it’s not a good idea to compare it to actual efficiencies. Negative AED figures could be a good thing. Here’s a breakdown:
- If “Expected ED” is a negative value, and the “Actual ED” is positive, then the AED would be negative. [UNDERDOG WINS THE GAME]
- If “Expected ED” is a negative value, and the “Actual ED” is negative but bigger than expected, then the AED would be negative. [UNDERDOG LOSES BY A SMALL MARGIN]
- If “Expected ED” is a positive value, and the “actual” is positive but bigger than expected, then the AED would still be negative. [FAVORITE WINS BY A HIGH MARGIN]
NBA Rest Days Explained
For each team, we take team schedules and tag the “game-day”s and “off-day”s. This way, we can analyze the rest days patterns. Let’s code:
X as the game-day, and
O, as the off-day.
GAME DAYS WITH NO REST:
4IN5-B2B: 4th game in 5 days w/ playing on last 2 consecutive nights. Pattern=
…X+X+O+[X+X]
Side note: The NBA avoided scheduling “4IN5-B2B” games starting from 2017-18 season!
3IN4-B2B*: 3rd game in 4 days w/ playing on last 2 consecutive nights. Pattern=
…X+O+[X+X]
B2B: 2nd game in 2 days w/ playing on the last 2 consecutive nights. Pattern=
…[X+X]
AT LEAST 1 DAY REST:
3IN4: 3rd game in 4 days and had 1 day rest yesterday. Pattern=
…X+X+O+X
1:Had 1 day rest (yesterday) and a playing a game today. Pattern=
…O+X
2 :Had 2 days rest and a playing a game a game today. Pattern=
…O+O+X
3+: 3 or more days rest and playing a game today. Pattern=
…O+O+O+X
*Some of the 3IN4-B2B games might also be “fifth game in 7 days”. But all “fifth game in 7 days” are always a 3IN4-B2B.
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