Tag: Regular Season

The Trail Blazers Love to Play Back-to-Back Games

You can always follow current season's NBA rest days stats including back-to-back game stats at NBAstuffer.

After the win over OKC, Portland improved to 14-3 W-L (.823) in second game of back to back sets. This is by far better than any team in the NBA.

They have played with a plus 4.3 efficiency differential, which is already adjusted to opponent strenght and game location.

What's more, the Blazers also lead the NBA in "4th game in 5 nights", having won 3 of 3 (with +9 efficiency differential) so far. In back-to-back situation of "3rd game in 4 days" (3IN4-B2B) they trail San Antonio and Cleveland according to winning percentage.

In the recap McMillan says: "It was a gut check for our guys, we have been talking about winning back-to-back games." It appears that Stats are backing McMillan. Portland Trail Blazers is a good regular season team, and hopefully will be better in Playoffs where there are no back-to-back games!

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2009-2010 NBA Regular Season Prediction Record

HOW THE "SCORE PREDICTION" MODEL WORKS?
The predictive model uses regression analysis to determine coefficients for the factors that might have impact on the game outcomes. As the model continuously improves itself by employing some optimization techniques, it only focuses on predicting the nearest final scores individually for road team and home team.

HOW TO EVALUATE THE RESULTS?
Since the goal is to output nearest score for road team and home team, criterias such as margin of victory, accuracy of picking the winner team should not be primarily considered when evaluating the success. Though, the record for predicting winning teams has been tracked and is 653-296 (.688) since December 1, 2009.
An assigned grade for both road team and home team does a better job of classifying the results by taking points differential between predicted and actual score.

Complete prediction history has been documented at the prediction archive.

Here is a couple of charts that reveal success of the model by breaking results down to grades which indicate the accuracy of NBA score predictions:

HOW TO INTERPRET THE CHARTS?
Each score prediction is evaluated by a grade that measures the differential between predicted score and actual score. If this differential is in the "0-3" points range, it gets an "A"; for the "4-7" points range, it gets a "B" and so on.

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2009-2010 NBA Regular Season Prediction Archive

Includes predicted game scores from December 1, 2009 to April 11, 2010.
Click column headers to sort. Reverse the sort order by clicking on it twice. Mouseover column headers for explanations.

WHAT DO GRADES INDICATE? Each score prediction for both road team and home team is evaluated by a grade which is the differential between predicted score and actual score.

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