Tag: Prediction Record
These items have all been tagged with the tag "Prediction Record", You can see other tags in the Tag CloudHOW THE "SCORE PREDICTION" MODEL WORKS?
The predictive model uses regression analysis to determine coefficients for the factors that might have impact on the game outcomes. As the model continuously improves itself by employing some optimization techniques, it only focuses on predicting the nearest final scores individually for road team and home team.
HOW TO EVALUATE THE RESULTS?
Since the goal is to output nearest score for road team and home team, criterias such as margin of victory, accuracy of picking the winner team should not be primarily considered when evaluating the success. Though, the record for predicting winning teams has been tracked and is 59-23 (.720) since April 17, 2010.
An assigned grade for both road team and home team does a better job of classifying the results by taking points differential between predicted and actual score.
HOW TO INTERPRET THE CHARTS? Each score prediction is evaluated by a grade that measures the differential between predicted score and actual score. If this differential is in the "0-3" points range, it gets an "A"; for the "4-7" points range, it gets a "B" and so on.
HOW THE "SCORE PREDICTION" MODEL WORKS?
The predictive model uses regression analysis to determine coefficients for the factors that might have impact on the game outcomes. As the model continuously improves itself by employing some optimization techniques, it only focuses on predicting the nearest final scores individually for road team and home team.
HOW TO EVALUATE THE RESULTS?
Since the goal is to output nearest score for road team and home team, criterias such as margin of victory, accuracy of picking the winner team should not be primarily considered when evaluating the success. Though, the record for predicting winning teams has been tracked and is 653-296 (.688) since December 1, 2009.
An assigned grade for both road team and home team does a better job of classifying the results by taking points differential between predicted and actual score.
Here is a couple of charts that reveal success of the model by breaking results down to grades which indicate the accuracy of NBA score predictions:
HOW TO INTERPRET THE CHARTS?
Each score prediction is evaluated by a grade that measures the differential between predicted score and actual score. If this differential is in the "0-3" points range, it gets an "A"; for the "4-7" points range, it gets a "B" and so on.
The model is 59-26 (.694) in predicting winner teams since April, 18, 2009.
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Roll your mouse over the underlined games to compare teams in terms of 4 Factors
DATE |
CONFERENCE-ROUND |
GAME # |
ROAD TEAM | HOME TEAM | SCORES |
PREDICTION |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/14/2009 | THE FINALS | GAME 5 | Lal | Orl | 99 | 86 |  |
| 6/11/2009 | THE FINALS | GAME 4 | Lal | Orl | 99 | 91 | |
| 6/9/2009 | THE FINALS | GAME 3 | Lal | Orl | 104 | 108 |  |
| 6/7/2009 | THE FINALS | GAME 2 | Orl | Lal | 96 | 101 | |
| 6/4/2009 | THE FINALS | GAME 1 | Orl | Lal | 75 | 100 | |
| 5/30/2009 | EAST FINAL | GAME 6 | Cle | Orl | 90 | 103 | |
| 5/29/2009 | WEST FINAL | GAME 6 | Lal | Den | 119 | 92 | |
| 5/28/2009 | EAST FINAL | GAME 5 | Orl | Cle | 102 | 112 | |
| 5/27/2009 | WEST FINAL | GAME 5 | Den | Lal | 94 | 103 | |
| 5/26/2009 | EAST FINAL | GAME 4 | Cle | Orl | 114 | 116 | |
| 5/25/2009 | WEST FINAL | GAME 4 | Lal | Den | 101 | 120 | |
| 5/24/2009 | EAST FINAL | GAME 3 | Cle | Orl | 89 | 99 | |
| 5/23/2009 | WEST FINAL | GAME 3 | Lal | Den | 103 | 97 | |
| 5/22/2009 | EAST FINAL | GAME 2 | Orl | Cle | 95 | 96 | |
| 5/21/2009 | WEST FINAL | GAME 2 | Den | Lal | 106 | 103 | |
| 5/20/2009 | EAST FINAL | GAME 1 | Orl | Cle | 107 | 106 | |
| 5/19/2009 | WEST FINAL | GAME 1 | Den | Lal | 103 | 105 | |
| 5/17/2009 | WEST SEMIFINAL | GAME 7 | Hou | Lal | 70 | 89 | |
| 5/17/2009 | EAST SEMIFINAL | GAME 7 | Orl | Bos | 101 | 82 | |
| 5/14/2009 | WEST SEMIFINAL | GAME 6 | Lal | Hou | 80 | 95 | |
| 5/14/2009 | EAST SEMIFINAL | GAME 6 | Bos | Orl | 75 | 83 | |
| 5/13/2009 | WEST SEMIFINAL | GAME 5 | Dal | Den | 110 | 124 | |
| 5/12/2009 | EAST SEMIFINAL | GAME 5 | Orl | Bos | 88 | 92 | |
| 5/12/2009 | WEST SEMIFINAL | GAME 5 | Hou | Lal | 78 | 118 | |
| 5/11/2009 | EAST SEMIFINAL | GAME 4 | Cle | Atl | 84 | 74 | |
| 5/11/2009 | WEST SEMIFINAL | GAME 4 | Den | Dal | 117 | 119 | |
| 5/10/2009 | WEST SEMIFINAL | GAME 4 | Lal | Hou | 87 | 99 | |
| 5/10/2009 | EAST SEMIFINAL | GAME 4 | Bos | Orl | 95 | 94 | |
| 5/9/2009 | WEST SEMIFINAL | GAME 3 | Den | Dal | 106 | 105 | |
| 5/9/2009 | EAST SEMIFINAL | GAME 3 | Cle | Atl | 97 | 82 | |
| 5/8/2009 | WEST SEMIFINAL | GAME 3 | Lal | Hou | 108 | 94 | |
| 5/8/2009 | EAST SEMIFINAL | GAME 3 | Bos | Orl | 96 | 117 | |
| 5/7/2009 | EAST SEMIFINAL | GAME 2 | Atl | Cle | 85 | 105 | |
| 5/6/2009 | WEST SEMIFINAL | GAME 2 | Hou | Lal | 98 | 111 | |
| 5/6/2009 | EAST SEMIFINAL | GAME 2 | Orl | Bos | 94 | 112 | |
| 5/5/2009 | WEST SEMIFINAL | GAME 2 | Dal | Den | 105 | 117 | |
| 5/5/2009 | EAST SEMIFINAL | GAME 1 | Atl | Cle | 72 | 99 | |
| 5/4/2009 | WEST SEMIFINAL | GAME 1 | Hou | Lal | 100 | 92 | |
| 5/4/2009 | EAST SEMIFINAL | GAME 1 | Orl | Bos | 95 | 90 | |
| 5/3/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 7 | Mia | Atl | 78 | 91 | |
| 5/3/2009 | WEST SEMIFINAL | GAME 1 | Dal | Den | 95 | 109 | |
| 5/2/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 7 | Chi | Bos | 99 | 109 | |
| 5/1/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 6 | Atl | Mia | 72 | 98 | |
| 4/30/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 6 | Bos | Chi | 127 | 128 | |
| 4/30/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 6 | Orl | Phi | 114 | 89 | |
| 4/30/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 6 | Por | Hou | 76 | 92 | |
| 4/29/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 5 | Mia | Atl | 91 | 106 | |
| 4/29/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 5 | Nor | Den | 86 | 107 | |
| 4/28/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 5 | Chi | Bos | 104 | 106 | |
| 4/28/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 5 | Phi | Orl | 78 | 91 | |
| 4/28/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 5 | Dal | San | 106 | 93 | |
| 4/28/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 5 | Hou | Por | 77 | 88 | |
| 4/27/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 4 | Atl | Mia | 81 | 71 | |
| 4/27/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 5 | Uta | Lal | 96 | 107 | |
| 4/27/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 4 | Den | Nor | 121 | 63 | |
| 4/26/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 4 | Cle | Det | 99 | 78 | |
| 4/26/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 4 | Bos | Chi | 118 | 121 | |
| 4/26/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 4 | Orl | Phi | 84 | 81 | |
| 4/26/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 4 | Por | Hou | 88 | 89 | |
| 4/25/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 3 | Atl | Mia | 78 | 107 | |
| 4/25/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 4 | Lal | Uta | 108 | 94 | |
| 4/25/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 3 | Den | Nor | 93 | 95 | |
| 4/25/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 4 | San | Dal | 90 | 99 | |
| 4/24/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 3 | Cle | Det | 79 | 68 | |
| 4/24/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 3 | Orl | Phi | 94 | 96 | |
| 4/24/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 3 | Por | Hou | 83 | 86 | |
| 4/23/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 3 | Bos | Chi | 107 | 86 | |
| 4/23/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 3 | Lal | Uta | 86 | 88 | |
| 4/23/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 3 | San | Dal | 67 | 88 | |
| 4/22/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 2 | Phi | Orl | 87 | 96 | |
| 4/22/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 2 | Mia | Atl | 108 | 93 | |
| 4/22/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 2 | Nor | Den | 93 | 108 | |
| 4/21/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 2 | Det | Cle | 82 | 94 | |
| 4/21/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 2 | Uta | Lal | 109 | 119 | |
| 4/21/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 2 | Hou | Por | 103 | 107 | |
| 4/20/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 2 | Chi | Bos | 115 | 118 | |
| 4/20/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 2 | Dal | San | 84 | 105 | |
| 4/19/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 1 | Phi | Orl | 100 | 98 | |
| 4/19/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 1 | Mia | Atl | 64 | 90 | |
| 4/19/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 1 | Uta | Lal | 100 | 113 | |
| 4/19/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 1 | Nor | Den | 84 | 113 | |
| 4/18/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 1 | Det | Cle | 84 | 102 | |
| 4/18/2009 | EAST ROUND 1 | GAME 1 | Chi | Bos | 105 | 103 | |
| 4/18/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 1 | Dal | San | 105 | 97 | |
| 4/18/2009 | WEST ROUND 1 | GAME 1 | Hou | Por | 108 | 81 | |
Elimination games highlighted.
The model is 681-269
Distribution of score predictions by grades is as follows:
For both road and home teams, score predictions are given grades that indicate prediction quality decided by points differential between predicted and actual score.