Team Evaluation Metrics


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Term Definition
Four Factors
Author: Dean Oliver

Four factors are box score derived metrics that correlate most closely with winning basketball games. These factors also identify a team’s strategic strengths and weaknesses. Four factors can be applied to both a team's offense and defense, hence it gives us eight factors.

  • Shooting the ball

Effective Field Goal Percentage=(Field Goals Made) + 0.5*3P Field Goals Made))/(Field Goal Attempts)

  • Taking care of the ball

Turnover Rate=Turnovers/(Field Goal Attempts + 0.44*Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers)

  • Offensive rebounding

Offensive Rebounding Percentage = (Offensive Rebounds)/[(Offensive Rebounds)+(Opponent's Defensive Rebounds)]

  • Getting to the foul line

Free Throw Rate=(Free Throws Made)/(Field Goals Attempted) or Free Throws Attempted/Field Goals Attempted


Comments: While these are the four essential factors that decide winning and losing in the NBA, the factors do not carry equal weight.
1. Shooting (40%)
2. Turnovers (25%)
3. Rebounding (20%)
4. Free Throws (15%)
The number in parentheses is the approximate weight of each factor. Shooting is the most important factor, followed by turnovers, rebounding, and free throws.
Each statistic measures a separate skill — there’s no reason that a team can’t shoot well, commit few turnovers, rebound a high percentage of its misses and make frequent trips to the free throw line. At the same time, a team can compensate for poor performance in one area by outstanding performance in another — hitting the offensive boards on a poor shooting night, for example.
 
Free Throw Conversion

The ability to get to the free throw line, and the ability to make free throws. Two metrics are used the measure free throw conversion.

(Free Throws Attempted)/(Field Goal Attempts) explains how often a team shoots free throws

(Free Throws Made)/(Field Goal Attempts) explains how well a team shoots at the line in addition to how often they get there

 


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