Player Evaluation Metrics

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Term Definition
Author: J.Sagarin, W.Winston

Aprogram which measures team chemisty and analyzes a player's impact on his team's ability to produce points. WINVAL is the labor ofJeff Sagarin and Wayne Winston,who areboth graduates of MIT.

WINVAL's most unique characteristic is that it measures individual and team performance after every lineup change in every game. WINVAL's ratings also factor in who each individual is playing with and against at all times. The WINVAL scouting reports also include data on referees.

Win Score
Author: David Berri

The metric that indicates the relative value of a player's point, rebound, steal, turnover, and field goal attempt.

Win Score Formula=(Points)+(Rebounds)+(Steals)+(½Assists)+(½Blocked Shots)-(Field Goal Attempts)-(Turnovers)-½(Free Throw Attempts)-½Personal Fouls

Comments: Win Score is sufficient to give you a quick snapshot of a player?s performance. And it is especially useful if you wish to know if a player is playing better or worse than he did before.
Win Share
Author: Justin Kubatko

A Win Share is worth one-third of a team win. Win Shares are assigned to players based on their offense, defense, and playing time. If a team wins 60 games, there are 180 Win Shares to distribute among the players. This is always true; if a team wins n games, then there are 3n Win Shares to allocate to the players.

More information about Win Share calculation

Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP)
Author: Kevin Pelton

WARP, a metric which is invented by Kevin Pelton, stands for Wins Above Replacement Player. The term and concept are borrowed from sabermetrics and, specifically, Baseball Prospectus.

Conceptually, the WARP system seeks to evaluate players in the context of a team made up of them and four completely average players. The performance of this team is then compared to that of a team made up of four average players and one replacement level player. The method also draws heavily on the work of
Dean Oliver.

Using replacement level shows the value of players who can play heavy minutes and avoid injury while continuing to perform above replacement level. Using wins gives a measure of value that is easy to understand and constant over time. Lastly, by eschewing the traditional linear weights method so common in basketball analysis, WARP does a better job of incorporating defensive value. Learn more about WARP calculation.

Comments: Like all rating systems based on box-score data, WARP cannot account for contributions that are not tracked in the box score, most notably on defense. It does no better than linear weights methods at evaluating players like Bruce Bowen. Also, it requires a number of assumptions - the value of assists, the trade-off between usage and efficiency, and replacement level. But, this rating system is very flexible. Players can be rated on a per-minute basis (using the theoretical "winning percentage" of the team with four average players), in terms of their offense and defense and in terms of their overall value.
Wins Produced
Author: David Berri

A metric which is invented by David J. Berribased on box score stats. Wins Produced is derived from the relationship between wins and offensive and defensive efficiency. It takes five steps to calculate Wins Produces for each player.

Get more information about Wins Produced calculation.


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