ANALYTICS 101
Team Evaluation Metrics | |
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| Possession | Arguably the most important discovery in statistical analytics in basketball.A possession ends(1) by making a field goal attempt;(2) by missing a shot and not getting the offensive rebound;(3) by turning the ball over;(4) by going to the line for two or three shots and either making the last shot or not getting the rebound of a missed last shot.Two teams in any given games are essentially limited to the same number of possessions.Basic Possession Formula=0.96*[(Field Goal Attempts)+(Turnovers)+0.44*(Free Throw Attempts)-(Offensive Rebounds)] More Specific Possession Formula=(Field Goal Attempts)+(Turnovers)+0.44*(Free Throw Attempts) - 1.07*(Offensive Rebounding Percentage)*(Missed Shots) Comments: The .44 multiplier is because not all free throws take up a possession. Technical foul shots and "hoop and the harm"s do not, while there are more than two free throws on one possession with a three-shot foul. Research has determined that about 44% of all free throws take up possessions. The .96 multiplier accounts for team offensive rebounds in situations where a missed shot is tipped out of bounds by a defensive player, continuing the possession without an offensive rebound being credited. |
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