ANALYTICS 101
Team Evaluation Metrics | |
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| There are 8 entries in the glossary. | |
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| Term | Definition |
| Pace | The total number of possessions a team uses in a game.Pace Formula=[240/(Team Minutes)]*(Possessionteam+Possessionopponent)/2 |
| Play Percent | The metric that indicates the percentage of the time a team will score if not sent to the free throw line. Scoring possessions minus scoring possessions on which no field goal was made (only free throws), divided by possessions minus scoring possessions on which no field goal was made.Play Percent Formula= Field Goals Made/(Field Goals Attempted-Offensive Rebounds+Turnovers)
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| Point Differential | The numerical gap between points scored and points allowed. Wins in close games tend not to reflect a team's true skill. Teams that start the season with a better record than their point differential tend to slow down and vice versa. Point differential is also a better predictor of future performance than win-loss record.Point Differential Formula=(Points Scored)-(Points Allowed) |
| Points Off Turnovers | When a team commits a turnover, the scoring crew records the turnover. On the following opponent possession, if the opponent scores, the scoring system credits that opponent with a "point off a turnover.Comments: Points off turnovers" is a misleading statistic. "Turnovers per possessions" is a better metric to measure the cost of a turnover |
| Possession | Arguably the most important discovery in statistical analytics in basketball.A possession ends(1) by making a field goal attempt;(2) by missing a shot and not getting the offensive rebound;(3) by turning the ball over;(4) by going to the line for two or three shots and either making the last shot or not getting the rebound of a missed last shot.Two teams in any given game are essentially limited to the same number of possessions. Basic Possession Formula=0.96*[(Field Goal Attempts)+(Turnovers)+0.44*(Free Throw Attempts)-(Offensive Rebounds)] More Specific Possession Formula=0.5 * ((Field Goal Attempts + 0.4 * Free Throw Attempts - 1.07 * (Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds)) * (Field Goal Attempts - FG) + Turnovers) + (Opponent Field Goal Attempts + 0.4 * Opponent Free Throw Attempts - 1.07 * (Opponent Offensive Rebounds / (Opponent Offensive Rebounds + Defensive Rebounds)) * (Opponent Field Goal Attempts - Opponent FG) + Opponent Turnovers)). Comments: The .44 multiplier is because not all free throws take up a possession. Technical foul shots and "hoop and the harm"s do not, while there are more than two free throws on one possession with a three-shot foul. Research has determined that about 44% of all free throws take up possessions. The .96 multiplier accounts for team offensive rebounds in situations where a missed shot is tipped out of bounds by a defensive player, continuing the possession without an offensive rebound being credited. |
| Power Rankings | A subjective evaluation tool for the NBA teams which rates the entire league from top to bottom. NBA power rankings are based mostly on how good teams really are, with recent performances taken into partial consideration. The NBA.com does the power rankings job by using the offensive and defensive efficiencies.Find out the NBA Teams' power rankings in graphics form which helps readers get a better understanding about exactly where the teams currently stand at. |
| Projected Winning Percentage | A formula that simply uses a team's net overall point differential (PD=points differential) rather than points scored and point allowed.Each point of differential translates to 2.7 wins over the course of the season. Projected Win%=[(Points Differential)*2.7)+41]/82 |
| Pythagorean Winning Percentage | The method that gives an expected winning percentage using the ratio of a team's wins and losses is related to the number of points scored and allowed.Expected Winning Percentage Formula=(Points Scored)16.5/[Points Scored)16.5 + (Points Allowed)16.5)] |
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