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HOME arrow HOME arrow 2009-2010 NBA Regular Season Prediction Record
2009-2010 NBA Regular Season Prediction Record

The predictive model uses regression analysis to determine coefficients for the factors that might have impact on the game outcomes. As the model continuously improves itself by employing some optimization techniques, it only focuses on predicting the nearest final scores individually for road team and home team.

Since the goal is to output nearest score for road team and home team, criterias such as margin of victory, accuracy of picking the winner team should not be primarily considered when evaluating the success. Though, the record for predicting winning teams has been tracked and is 653-296 (.688) since December 1, 2009.
An assigned grade for both road team and home team does a better job of classifying the results by taking points differential between predicted and actual score.

Complete prediction history has been documented at the prediction archive.

Here is a couple of charts that reveal success of the model by breaking results down to grades which indicate the accuracy of NBA score predictions:

Each score prediction is evaluated by a grade that measures the differential between predicted score and actual score. If this differential is in the "0-3" points range, it gets an "A"; for the "4-7" points range, it gets a "B" and so on.

Last Updated ( Monday, 19 April 2010 )
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