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Offense or Defense? Which One Helps NBA Teams Win? Print E-mail
Written by Serhat Ugur   
Tuesday, 22 January 2008

 

 

 

I want you to be in the know that research has been made by using only the data of NBA 2007-2008 regular season; if we date back to previous seasons we will get different results. After the regular season I will also be testing the relationship degree between playoff wins vs. efficiencies. Now, we can proceed to article safely.

 

In a ball game we assume that both teams share the total ball possessions roughly equal. So what? Offensive and defensive efforts should have same importance degree. No! In terms of efficiency, offense is more important in NBA 2007-2008 regular season when it to comes to winning. According to correlation coefficients, focusing on offense works better for the home teams to pull out a victory. Home cooking calls, fans noise, motivated squad, etc. could make a home team look more offensive than it is. But this is out of the subject of my article. 

 

Here's the quick research results about what NBA teams have to do to win regular season games.

 

(1) Offense wins games. We made it for sure because offensive efficiency has 0.1 higher correlation coefficient than defensive efficiency. Defensive efficiency has a -0.74 correlation with W/L percentage. For those of you who are not familiar with these stuff let me give an example. If correlation coefficient is at -1 or at +1 we can say that there is a perfect relationship. Defensive efficiency coefficients are in negative figures in opposition to offense because a higher defensive efficiency value means bad defense.

 

(2) Playing on the road or playing at home also have different impacts on winning games. As I mentioned before, home teams have to concentrate more on offense. You may look at the team efficiency page for the results in situational splits.

 

             
 SEASONOFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY  DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY 
 (OEFF) & (W / L Percentage) Correlation 0.85 (DEFF) & (W / L Percentage) Correlation-0.74 
   
             
 ON THE ROADOFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY 
 (OEFF) & (W / L Percentage)  Correlation 0.80 (DEFF) & (W / L Percentage) Correlation -0.78 
   
             
 AT HOMEOFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY 
 (OEFF) & (W / L Percentage) Correlation 0.79 (DEFF) & (W / L Percentage) Correlation -0.64 
   
             

 

 

(3) I got bad news for the coaches who loves to play run&gun style: I'm sorry but stats can't help you at this time as playing up-tempo style is not statistically significant enough to say a there's a relationship between pace and W/L percentage.

 

 

 

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